After steep declines in 2023 and 2024 following the 5G peak, RAN market conditions are now stabilizing. In the absence of any major growth catalysts, the appetite for RAN is expected to remain muted over the near-term before 6G capex starts ramping, according to a new report from Dell’Oro Group.
“The past couple of years have been extremely challenging with RAN shedding nearly $10 B in revenue globally,”said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President for RAN market research at Dell’Oro Group. “While there are still risks in both directions and probably still tilted to the downside due to slowing data traffic growth, the improved sentiment around 6G can be interpreted as a positive, bolstering this assumption that there could be material 6G revenue by 2030,” continued Pongratz.
Additional highlights from the Mobile RAN 5-Year January 2026 Forecast Report:
- The long-term position has not changed. RAN is not a growth market over time (0% CAGR between 2000 and 2025). However, it can go through periods of higher and lower capital intensity ratios as operators align investment needs with the availability of new spectrum/technologies and demand for capacity. The base case forecast is for stable RAN and capex trends, resulting in further improvements in capital intensity ratios before 6G investments commence towards the end of the forecast period
- Worldwide RAN revenues are projected to grow at a 1 percent CAGR over the next five years, as rapidly declining LTE revenues will offset continued 5G and initial 6G investments.
- More optimistic and pessimistic outcomes are possible, depending on mobile data traffic growth, timing of capacity investments, and the focus on network differentiation.
- RAN as a share of wireless capex is expected to average in the 20 to 25 percentage share range over the forecast period.
